Six Nations Rugby Points Permutations

The Six Nations Championship is an annual international rugby union tournament contested by the national teams of England, France, Ireland, Italy, Scotland, and Wales.  It holds the distinction of being the oldest international rugby tournament and one of the world's oldest sporting competitions.   

The Six Nations evolved from earlier competitions.  It originated as the Home Nations Championship (1883–1909 and 1932–39), which involved England, Ireland, Scotland, and Wales.  The addition of France led to the Five Nations Championship (1910–31 and 1947–99).  In 2000, Italy joined, creating the current Six Nations Championship.

England and Wales share the record for most championship titles, with 39 each.  However, England has won the most titles outright, with 29 compared to Wales's 28.  See the table above to see the full standings for each team.  Since the Six Nations era began in 2000, only Italy and Scotland have yet to secure a championship victory.  And clearly Italy's numbers are not a fair representation of their rugby legacy, since they only 'recently' joined the competition.  

The current championship holders are Ireland, who won the 2024 tournament.  And they have a great chance of winning another grand slam victory over the next two weekends.  This year the contest has two more rounds of play left on March 8-9th and March 15th.  Who will win is not yet decided but it could be a very close finish.  See some possible points permutations in the table below.

But how are these points earned?  The Six Nations Championship utilizes a round-robin format, ensuring each of the six participating nations plays each other once, resulting in five matches per team each year.  Teams earn four points for a win, two for a draw, and none for a loss.  The team accumulating the highest point total across their five matches is crowned champion.  To further incentivize dynamic play, bonus points are awarded.  

The bonus points, introduced to reward attacking rugby and encourage teams to pursue points even when trailing, include one point for scoring four or more tries in a match, one point for losing by seven points or fewer, and three points for achieving a Grand Slam (winning all five matches). Consequently, a team can earn a maximum of five points per game, while a losing team can gain up to two.

At the end of all matches, if more than one team finds themselves level on points, the order is decided on 'points difference' - the difference between the total points scored and the total points conceded on the field, ie the net match points.  If the net match points are tied at the end then number of tries is the deciding factor.  The team with the most tries scored wins.  If they are still tied then the teams share the trophy for that year.  That might happen this year.  Next weekend, on March 8-9th, all six teams play.  It is Ireland vs France and Scotland vs Wales on Saturday; then England take on Italy on Sunday.  This is the penultimate round of matches.

There are many possible scenarios playing out in the next round, but two outcomes are by far the most likely.  They are as follows:  Scenario 1) Ireland beats France and they go on to win the Grand Slam the following weekend against Italy and are crowned Six Nations Champions.  This means Ireland would have won three titles in a row, two of which were Grand Slam victories.  The last time a team won three in a row outright (not shared) was Wales from 1975-1979.  France won 1986-1989 but two of those were shared victories.  If Ireland win on Saturday it will be their proudest rugby moment in the history of the tournament and the first time they have won three in a row. 

In Scenario 2a) France sneak a narrow victory against the Irish in Dublin next Saturday March 8th.  In which case there is a very good chance each of Ireland, England and France will be level on 15 points going into the final weekend (red in the table below).  That is when the points system and rules surrounding it may have massive bearing on which team wins the Championship, because tries and bonus points will almost certainly factor in after the final round.  You can see how the points could play out in various permutations below.  

The best a rugby fan can hope for is that France narrowly win in Dublin and then all 3 top teams go into the final round against 3 different opponents level on points - that way the team that score the most tries in their last match should win the whole thing.  That'll make for an epic finish to the Six Nations tournament and is about as close as a sports tournament can get, as any one of three teams could win.  There will be a good chance two teams end level on points and the winner gets decided by match points difference (or even number of tries!). In that scenario, it is worth noting that France will have the edge based on match points difference, and if England win this year's contest they will have won more Six Nations trophies than any other team in history (40).  And if France win the tournament this year they will equal England's record of 7 wins in the modern Six Nations era.

Conversely, if Ireland beat France on Saturday March 8th the Six Nations may have an anticlimactic ending the following weekend - but the Irish will have achieved a historic milestone and something no other Irish team has done in 140+ years of rugby competition.

Note: The match schedule is at bottom of this page.  The results and video highlights will be here.

Author's note: We got our wish and the 6 Nations will go down to the final round.  A combination of scenario 2b and 3 happened, as France did beat Ireland convincingly (42-27) and England also won with a bonus point.  So, going into the final weekend it is France on 16, England on 15 and Ireland on 14 points.  Only thing between France and a Six Nations win is the Scottish rugby team.   Watch the final round of matches on Peacock (app) or NBC (TV), the US timing is as follows:

9.15am on March 15th - Italy v Ireland, Rome, Italy (Ireland won+bonus pt)

11.45am on March 15th - Wales v England, Cardiff, Wales (England won+bonus pt) 

3.00pm on March 15th - France v Scotland, Paris, France (France won and win the 6 Nations)

Results and highlights here.