Will we see another Six Nations surprise? (3 min read)

 

Last weekend round 4 of 5 was played in the 2026 Six Nations Rugby competition. It was one of the most unbelievable weekends in the history of the tournament.  Scotland played one of the best games of rugby ever seen in the 6 Nations by beating France 50-40, a scoreline nobody saw coming.  And Italy did something they have never done - their Men's national team beat England in a test rugby match. 

Previously, Italy had faced England on 33 occasions in men’s Test rugby. In their match at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, the Italians beat England 23-18, thanks to tries from Tommaso Menoncello and Leonardo Marin. Three penalties from fly-half Paolo Garbisi sealed the win for Gonzalo Quesada’s men to make history. Before that match, England had a perfect record against Italy.

In similar fashion, Scotland pulled off a remarkable performance on home soil at Murrayfield Stadium in Edinburgh. They beat tournament favorites and last year's 6 Nations champs, France, by 50 points to 40. Thereby Scotland shattered France's Grand Slam dreams. This was the first time Scotland had have ever put 50 points on Les Bleus. The match was a breathtaking 13-try thriller where Scotland’s attacking ambition, led by brilliance from wingers Darcy Graham and Kyle Steyn, saw them race to a commanding 47–14 lead by the 64th minute. Despite a frantic late rally from France—who managed four tries in the final 15 minutes to secure a crucial losing bonus point—Scotland held firm to throw the Six Nations title race wide open. Both sides are now level on points heading into tomorrow's "Super Saturday" finale, with France clinging to the top of the table only by virtue of a superior points difference. See the points table below.

Owing to last weekend's astounding rugby results, the 2026 Six Nations Championship is heading into a thrilling "Super Saturday" finale tomorrow on Saturday March 14th, for the final weekend of matches.  The title race is a three-way fight between France, Scotland and Ireland. France and Scotland are currently tied on 16 points each, with Ireland on 14 points. 

In essence, the 6 Nations winner will be determined like this: France win against England with a bonus point, i.e. they score four or more tries, and they are crowned 6 Nations champs. France lose and the winner of the Scotland-Ireland match is the champ. At the face of it, it is that simple. 

But obviously a draw could happen. And, also, there is a bonus point awarded to any team that scores 4 or more tries on the day, even if they only manage a draw. So, the actual number of possible permutations is quite high. The Scotland-Ireland game is first on Saturday afternoon, with the France-England game later that day in the evening, so the French team will know exactly what they have to do in order to be crowned victors. A summary of the specific path to victory for each team appears in the picture at the bottom of this article. France's biggest threat is going to be Scotland. 

A win for Scotland against Ireland would be huge. Should that happen, it would be the first time the Scots have won the tournament since Italy joined to make the 5 Nations into 6 Nations in 2000.  Theirs would have been the longest title wait in the tournament's history.  

Scotland were actually quite dominant when the tournament was founded over 100 years ago.  At the time it was played by only the British Isles and was called the "Home Nations" as it included only Scotland, England. Ireland and Wales. For the 63 years from 1883 to 1946 the Scottish rugby team had the 2nd best record after the English team. But that was a long time ago.  

The "home nations" as a contest still happens as a tournament within a tournament every year in the form of the "Triple Crown".  If any one team beats the other 3 teams in a given year, then that team is awarded the Triple Crown trophy. England won the first Triple Crown - although the phrase was not in use at the time - in the inaugural 1883 series of the original rugby union Home Nations Championship. Since then, the Triple Crowns have been awarded as follows: England: 26 (most recent in 2020); Wales: 22 (most recent 2021); Ireland:13 (2023); Scotland: 10 (1990).  

But these numbers will change tomorrow, because Ireland have also beaten England and Wales this year. So, tomorrow Scotland and Ireland are in a direct shootout for the 2026 Triple Crown—whoever wins that match in Dublin on Saturday afternoon will add another to their tally. 

Clearly, Scotland have the most to gain by winning. Not just their first 6 Nations since in 26 years, but also their first "Home Nations" in 35 years. Remember, Ireland has been the most successful team recently, winning back-to-back 6 Nations titles in 2023 and 2024. It will be tough to beat Ireland in Dublin and if the Scots win, they will fully deserve it.   

Of course, Scotland or Ireland could win the match and the Triple Crown title but still lose the 6 Nations. Their fate in the overall tournament will be decided a few hours later when the France-England match comes to a conclusion in Paris. The odds are heavily favored toward France winning, and the best thing Scotland or Ireland can do to control their destiny is to win with a bonus point by scoring 4 tries, then the pressure is on the French. 

I guess the key takeaway here is - the match in Dublin is not a "dead rubber" by any stretch. Yes, the French are overwhelming favorites to win the tournament again, but both the Scottish and Irish teams have a lot to play for. If last week was anything to go by, it is going to be cracker of a match in Dublin. 

On the other hand, the French have a little date with destiny. When France joined the rugby tournament in 1910, they struggled a lot, winning only one match and suffering several "whitewashes" (losing all matches) in the 1920s. In contrast, England dominated from 1911 to 1928, winning nine championships and five Grand Slams during that period. Rugby was a British game and there were questions over the inclusion of a French team at that time. The French struggled to compete and in 1932 they were actually kicked out of the Five Nations for breaking the rules by (allegedly) paying some of their players. Rugby was an amateur affair back then. Not anymore, of course.

The French team were not allowed back in for many years and then the tournament was suspended for WW2.  When it resumed in 1946 all was forgiven and the French were re-admitted into the fold. But they still struggled to catch-up and their first shared win came after another full decade of rugby in 1955. Then, finally, in 1960 France won the 5 Nations outright. That is a half century after they first joined the fold. 

Since then, Les Bleus, as the French rugby team are affectionately known, have gone from strength to strength and they are now, in many respects, the best northern hemisphere team of the modern era. Since the Six Nations began in 2000, England and France are tied for the most championship titles, with 7 trophies each. But France could make that 8 tomorrow. And France has achieved four grand slams (all matches won in the same year) versus England's two. And for the last six years, a French player been named player of the championship four times, courtesy mainly one man, their captain, Antoine Dupont. He and the French players are famous for their creativity and attacking style of play on the rugby field. Dupont leads them onto the pitch again against their old friends England and it is going to be an epic encounter. 

The French team and coaching staff will know exactly what they need points-wise prior to the start of the match. As unlikely as it may be, the best thing that could happen from a rugby fan's perspective, is if Scotland win and score 4 tries and, thereby, force France to do the same. That will guarantee an open and fast game of attacking rugby at Stade de France tomorrow night.  

Below chart shows each team's path to 6 Nations victory for tomorrow, March 14th. The permutations do not address all the possible outcomes, because the chances of some of them happening are so remote (e.g. Scotland win by a 59-point spread). Only the most likely and realistic outcomes are included in the chart, so one of these paths should materialize. We will know soon enough. Either way, history will be made.