Hamilton is not the first world champion to move to Ferrari with grand ambitions. But history offers mixed results for such high-profile moves. Let us take a walk down memory lane shall we.
Michael Schumacher had seven World Drivers' Championship titles (tied with Lewis Hamilton) at the time of his retirement from the sport in 2012. He started his career at Jordan and then Benetton, where he was twice world champ, becoming the youngest two-time champ in history in 1995. In 1996 Schumacher joined Ferrari and raced there for a decade and won the world title another 5 times, 5 consecutive times in fact, from 2000 to 2004. After qualifying second for the Japanese Grand Prix in 2006, his final season, in what could have seen him heading into the season finale with two points ahead of Fernando Alonso, tragedy struck. With only 16 laps to go, Schumacher's Ferrari suffered engine failure, thereby handing Alonso the victory. Schumacher still had a chance to win the final race of the season in Brazil but there he suffered fuel pressure problems and a puncture if you can believe it. He came so very close to a record 8th title, but it was not meant to be. The champ retired that year after winning the most championship titles (7), the most consecutive titles (5), the most race victories (91), the most consecutive race wins 7 (2004), and the most wins with one team (72, Ferrari), amongst numerous other accomplishments. Michael Schumacher was by far the best driver the sport had ever seen up to that point in time.
Like Schumacher, Sebastian Vettel started racing karts in Germany practically as soon as he could walk. And he too progressed quickly and went on to race for BMW, Torro Rosso, and then Red Bull where he bested his hero and set the new record for being the youngest World Champion in Formula One history. Vettel won four F1 World Championship driver titles: from 2010 to 2013, all with the Red Bull team. He then left that team while he was on top and joined Ferrari, surely to follow in his countryman's footsteps and win more titles while he was in his prime. No doubt he was motivated by his hero, and fellow German, Michael Schumacher, and his accomplishments whilst at the Italian team. But Vettel never won a title again while at Ferrari, and he ended his last season with Ferrari in a disappointing 13th place in the Drivers' standings, with a third place in Turkey as his best result for the entire season. Ferrari only finished sixth in the Constructors' standings that year, their worst result since 1980, while Vettel's total of 33 points was the lowest in a full campaign in his F1 career. A sad ending to this driver's time at the Italian team, especially in comparison to his countryman.
Another thought to ponder is the timing of the move. Schumacher moved to Ferrari at the age of 26. Vettel at the age of 27. Hamilton will be closer to 40, and if he wins at Ferrari, he won't be the oldest F1 driving champ ever, but he will certainly be one of them. Hamilton has already won a joint-record seven World Drivers' Championship titles, tied with Michael Schumacher. But he has eclipsed Schumacher, and every other driver, in terms of the most number of wins (103), pole positions (104), and podium finishes (197). More notably, should he win a season at Ferrari, he would have won a Driver's title with each of the sports three heavyweight constructors teams: Mclaren, Mercedes and Ferrari. These three teams have been in the sport of Formula One since the beginning in the 1950's, whilst many other teams have come and gone over time.
Over the entire 70+ year history of the F1 World Drivers' Championship only 34 drivers have ever won it. Of those 34 drivers, all but 6 have only won the championship with one team. The 6 drivers who won with two different teams are Alberto Ascari (Ferrari and Lancia), Jack Brabham (Cooper and Brabham), Niki Lauda (Ferrari and McLaren), Michael Schumacher (Benetton and Ferrari), Fernando Alonso (Renault and McLaren) and Lewis Hamilton (McLaren and Mercedes). I think it is safe to say that if Hamilton wins just one season with Ferrari we can stop asking who is the greatest of all time in Formula One. But, to achieve this he and Ferrari will need to find a way to beat Max Verstappen and Red Bull.
An existential threat facing Red Bull may give Hamilton and Ferrari that chance. Red Bull faces lose their long-time manager, Christian Horner, who is currently under investigation by Red Bull Racing's parent company in Austria on a misconduct accusation. There is no way the team holds its current competitive edge if its team principal of the last 19 years, Horner, has to be replaced on short notice. Even the news alone is a distraction, and we will see how it affects Red Bull this season.
There are many permutations at play here, and nobody knows what the future holds. But one thing for sure is that it is going to be exciting to watch. There was a time a few years back when F1 was getting a little boring, with everyone getting on just fine, and winning teams and drivers being decided by large points differences long before the final race of a season. I have a feeling those days may be over.
