Super Saturday points permutations for the 6 Nations

This Saturday is the fifth and final round of the 2024 Six Nations matches.  The firm favorite to win this year are Ireland.  They face Scotland at Dublin's Aviva Stadium.  England face France in Lyon a few hours after the Dublin match.  The Ireland-Scotland rugby match holds immense significance for the home team, with the entire Championship title on the line.

This year Ireland started the tournament with a dominant display, convincingly beating France away from home. Victories over Italy and Wales followed, keeping them firmly in the title race. However, their dream run was halted by a narrow defeat to England at Twickenham. Now, they require a win against Scotland to lift the trophy.  Or even a narrow loss could see them through.  England still have a small chance of beating them to the Championship spot though.  

If Ireland lose to Scotland, it is not clear cut who will win the overall trophy and there are numerous permutations at play.  England are currently four points behind Ireland going into the final round matches.  France and Scotland are five points behind Ireland.  So any of England, France or Scotland could still win the tournament, mathematically. The Six Nations points system is a little complex:

Let us recap.  Four points are awarded for a win.  If the match ends in a tie, both teams are awarded two points each.  There are no points for losing teams in the standard system.  The Six Nations goes beyond the basic win-draw-loss system with two exciting bonus points: A try bonus point rewards attacking play and is earned if a team scores four or more tries in a match, regardless of the outcome of the match.  So even losing teams can earn an additional point if they score four tries in a single match.  There is also a bonus point for losing narrowly.  The losing bonus point is earned if a team loses by a margin of seven points or fewer. It essentially acknowledges a close fight.  A team that loses by seven and scores four tries can get two bonus points, even though they get no standard points for losing the match.

And, obviously, the team with the highest number of points in aggregate at the end of the tournament claims the championship title.  If two or more teams are tied on points, then the game score difference (total points scored in matches minus points conceded in matches) is used as the tiebreaker.  If it comes to this Ireland will win by a large margin, England, France and Scotland are all already too far behind by that measure.

With Ireland currently sitting on 16 points in the table and England on 12 it is not a forgone conclusion - England could still win the whole thing, and they are the only other team with a real chance.  The England players will know going into their match whether they are playing for another Six Nations trophy or not, because the Ireland-Scotland match will have finished by the time they take the field in Lyon.

The way England can make up that points gap versus Ireland is if they earn 5 or 6 points on Saturday against France, i.e. they have to earn one or two bonus points in that match, a mere win is not good enough.  Ireland, on the other hand, have to lose their match against Scotland in order for England to stand any chance.  In the unlikely event that Ireland loses, but earn two bonus points, they still win the tournament, because their superior score difference in matches will be used if both teams finish tied on either 17 or 18 points.  In the final analysis, the odds are stacked against England, probably about 50-1 (the bookies will only pay you about 25-1 though).

For Ireland, a victory would mark a significant achievement. It would be back-to-back victories for them in the Six Nations, a rare feat for any team. The passionate Irish crowd at the Aviva Stadium will undoubtedly be a factor. Their fervent support can be a huge advantage, and the players will be drawing immense motivation from the stands.  The Irish are definitely the favorites to win this matchup.  

However, Scotland shouldn't be underestimated. They come into the match on the back of beating both England and Wales this year and they will be determined to spoil Ireland's party. The fixture promises to be a tight affair, with both teams boasting dangerous attacking threats.  Scottish backline player, Duhan van der Merwe, in particular could play a key role in the match.  The atmosphere in Dublin is sure to be electric, and the outcome of this match will be keenly watched by rugby fans around the world. A win for Ireland will cement their number two position in the world rankings.

That all said, it is not just England who are in with a chance of overall glory.  France can still win the whole thing if Ireland lose and the French beat England and earn bonus points in the process (e.g. Ireland get zero points and France gets 6 then they will finish Ireland 16 and France 17).  So, it will come down to the bonus points.  But the only way for France is if Scotland win.  Scotland play their match first though and won't be thinking about the chances of England or France winning later that day, they will be focusing on their own game.  They still have a lot to play for.

Scotland can still theoretically win the Six Nations title on Saturday if they beat Ireland by 77 points and Ireland get zero bonus points.  Realistically, that would only happen if Ireland has players sent off the field.  The odds of that happening are probably more like a Robbie Burns 10,000-1 (but the bookies will pay you only 125 on that and then wish thee weel).  But, more realistically, the Scottish team really has their pride on the line in this one, given their recent loss to Italy.  If it was not for that unanticipated result, they would have been serious contenders for the Six Nations title this weekend.  The knowledge of that must really hurt.  And that pain may drive them to prove a point on Saturday.  

If Scotland pull out a surprise win against Ireland, unfortunately they probably still won't win the Six Nations trophy, despite the enormous effort it will take to win that match.  But Scotland will have earned something that is maybe even more valuable - the elusive triple crown.  You see, for the first time in 34 years they will have beaten England, Wales and Ireland all in one tournament in one year.  And you can't put a price on that.  The Scottish team are playing for respect.