McLaren, Verstappen, anything can happen

Hypothetical points standing after last two races (Norris finishes 2nd & 5th)

The 2025 Formula 1 season is hurtling toward one of the most unpredictable and tightly contested Drivers' Championship finishes in the 70-year history of the sport.  After the Grand Prix last night in Las Vegas there is still a high-stakes 3-way duel between Lando Norris (McLaren) and Oscar Piastri (McLaren) and Max Verstappen (Red Bull).  

Max Verstappen claimed victory at the 2025 Las Vegas Grand Prix, but the spotlight quickly shifted to the provisional second and fourth-place finishers, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri of McLaren, whose results were hanging in the balance five hours after the race started. Following the GP, both of McLaren's MCL39 cars were referred to the stewards for an alleged breach of a technical requirement concerning the thickness of their rear skid blocks.

Ultimately, the McLarens were disqualified and that totally changes the points outcome for the race and for the drivers' championship.  The FIA stewards found that both McLaren cars failed to comply with Article 3.5.9 e) of the 2025 Formula 1 Technical Regulations.  Post-race technical checks confirmed that the rearmost skid on both car number 4 (Lando Norris) and car number 81 (Oscar Piastri) measured less than the minimum allowable thickness of $9\text{mm}$.  The Race Stewards' Justification: The stewards noted in their decision that the regulation is a "strict liability" offense and that a breach of the minimum thickness is not permissible, regardless of the cause (such as running low due to track bumps).

McLaren team principal Andrea Stella acknowledged Verstappen's superior pace after the Red Bull driver overtook Norris early on, telling Sky Sports, "I think we have to acknowledge that Red Bull and Verstappen were faster. Would've been interesting if we were in a condition to take the lead, use the clean air when you get in the lead. Max was faster than us. At some stage we thought second place was enough." That "enough" result, however, is now "not enough".

And there is not much the McLaren team can do about it.  A few times before this season these rules have been applied and results were reversed.  So the F1 race officials  are not likely to change their minds again and this disqualification will stick.  Specifically, this rule mandates that the thickness of the plank assembly must be $10\text{mm}\pm 0.2\text{mm}$ when new, and "A minimum thickness of 9mm will be accepted due to wear and conformity to this provision will be checked at the peripheries of the designated holes." The plank itself is made of Jabroc, a strengthened beechwood composite, and its rule exists primarily for safety, preventing cars from running too close to the ground, which would otherwise give a performance advantage via increased ground effect downforce.

The post-race McLaren disqualification elevated George Russell of Mercedes to second place in the Vegas classification, with his teammate Andrea Kimi Antonelli securing his third podium finish of the 2025 season in third.  These are the fifth and sixth disqualifications of the 2025 season, following Hulkenberg’s infringement and three others at the Chinese Grand Prix, where Charles Leclerc and Pierre Gasly were found to be 1kg underweight, and Lewis Hamilton was also disqualified for excessive rear skid block wear. This double disqualification for McLaren is the first time a podium finisher was stripped of their result since Russell lost his victory at the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix.

This new outcome is a significant consequence for the World Championship battle. Norris, the championship leader, now holds only a 24- point advantage over Piastri and Verstappen, a smaller gap than it could have been.  In the picture above is one of many possible points permutations for the remainder of the season.  It clearly shows that if Norris were to come second to Verstappen in Qatar (both in the sprint and the race itself), then Lando just needs a top 5 finish in the last race of the season to be crowned World Champion.  A manageable task, one would think, he just cannot get into an accident or get disqualified (again). 

Norris won't give up without a fight.  Nor will Piastri, he is not out of it.  Verstappen has been the Drivers' World Champion for the last 4 years, this would be his 5th title in a row if he were to win it again.  He is the in-form driver right now and it is going to be a thrilling conclusion across the final two F1 races this year as these guys fight it out.  Given how close the points are and the fact that there are three tough competitors still in it, the title will almost certainly be decided in the final race of the season. There are only two venues left, Qatar and Abu Dhabi.  There will be a Sprint race in Qatar with additional points on offer. 

With all this drama it is easy to forget that we have already seen history made this season. McLaren have won the team title.  Their bet on two young drivers has already paid off handsomely, as the team secured their first back-to-back Constructors' Championship victory since the 1990s, clinching the title as far back as the Italy race.  This Constructors' win is the team's 10th overall, cementing its place as the second-most successful in F1 history with 202 Grand Prix wins.  Only Ferrari have a better record in F1. See the picture at the bottom of this article.  

This weekend shows the unpredictable nature of F1.  And it highlights Red Bull’s aggressive car development compared to McLaren's high-risk shift to focus on 2026 regulations.  Is that what has caused the performance pendulum to swing mid-season?  No matter the reason, Verstappen is the hunter, with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Another DNF or single stroke of bad luck for Norris could decisively hand the title to the defending champion.  Or worse, to his teammate.

The 2026 F1 championship should logically have finished McLaren-McLaren, they have already won the Constructors' title by a massive margin.  But the three-way dog-fight to be the top driver means this could be the most competitive F1 Drivers' Championship finish in the history of the sport. 

(click on picture below to see the full table)