Today, Saturday May 25th, 2024, saw Leinster's woes continue as French side Toulouse emerged victorious in a thrilling extra-time battle in the 2023-24 Investec Champions Cup Finals. This 31-22 victory marks a record-extending sixth European title for the French giants, leaving their Irish counterparts heartbroken for the third year running.
Leinster, having fallen to La Rochelle in the previous two Champions Cup finals, were dealt another dose of final defeat. However, Toulouse's win wasn't a fluke. Their rock-solid defense proved impenetrable, finally securing revenge for their semifinal exits in 2022 and 2023 at the hands of the same opponent. Regulation time ended in a tense 15-15 deadlock, with neither side managing to cross the try line. A flurry of penalties kept the scoreboard ticking, but a last-minute drop-goal attempt by Leinster's Frawley sailed wide, sending the game into an extra 20 minutes.
This marked the first-ever Champions Cup final clash between these European heavyweights, and it lived up to the billing. It was a battle of wills, ultimately decided by Toulouse's incredible defensive resolve. Captain Antoine Dupont lauded his team's mental fortitude, crediting it as the key to their historic victory. After a grueling season, Toulouse rightfully claim their spot as the best professional rugby team in the world.
The Investec Champions Cup is the pinnacle of professional rugby union. Each year 24 teams vie for the title, 8 from each of the 3 'domestic' leagues. The 24 teams that qualify for this Cup competition is based on the performance in their domestic leagues in the prior season, and those leagues are busy being decided right now. The domestic leagues are 1) English, 2) French and 3) URC. URC comprises the best rugby teams from Scotland, Ireland, Wales, South Africa, and Italy (for now).
So far, the 8 English sides have been decided based on the points table. The French sides are not decided, because there are still regular season games remaining, but the top 8 teams based on points will go through. It is pretty straight forward who will qualify.
For the URC competition, however, it is not that simple. Because the HollywoodBets Sharks team from Durban won the Challenger Cup yesterday, May 24th, 2024, it has thrown the ending of this URC season into unchartered territory. Safe to say this is one of the most complex set of permutations you could ever see in deciding a sporting competition. Here is what the points table looks like now before the final round of matches next weekend:
In order to summarize the complexity and avoid you having to go read all the URC rules yourself, here is where it all stands: There is one round of regular season matches left next weekend that will decide the points table. Six teams have already qualified for the Champions Cup, namely Munster, the Bulls, Leinster, Glasgow, the Stormers, and the Sharks. The Sharks qualify for the Champions Cup based on winning the Challenger Cup, not based on their points standing in the table above.
Aside for these 6 teams, only 2 more teams will qualify to make up the full URC complement of 8. The teams that can still make it, along with their chances in brackets, are: Ulster (very good chance), Edinburgh (good), Benetton (medium), Lions (low), Connacht (almost zero), Ospreys (almost zero).
For Ulster to go through they just need to win, draw or lose within 7 points in their final match against Munster. Even if they do not achieve that they could still go through, it all depends on what happens with the other teams. The bonus points significantly complicate things. Each team that scores four tries gets a bonus point, even if they lose. And each losing side that scores within seven points of the winner gets a bonus point. So, Ulster could lose and still get one or two bonus points and thereby secure their Champions Cup spot.
For Connacht and the Ospreys, they need to win their final match, score a bonus point (i.e. four tries) and then win the end of season playoffs, i.e. each of the quarters, semis and URC finals on June 22nd. That would be their only path to the Champions Cup. It is possible, but not at all likely. The teams that have a realistic shot at making it into the final two Champions Cup spots are Ulster, Edinburgh, Benetton and the Lions.
So, the 2023-24 URC final round matches that really count next weekend are all on next Saturday, June 1st, in the following time order on that day: Lions vs Stormers; Edinburgh vs Benetton; Ulster vs Munster.
There are many permutations at play depending on who wins or loses, and the bonus points add a layer of complexity. The most realistic possible outcomes are all summarized below. We have made some simplifying assumptions in order to reach these outcomes, so this is not every scenario that exists, but it is every one that could realistically occur. Shown below are 11 outcomes by which Benetton can go through, 14 by which Edinburgh can go through and 14 combinations by which the Lions can qualify. Bonus point scenarios are added only where they could matter, so not every possible outcome is shown.
For example, we've excluded the scenarios where Ulster or the Lions draw their respective matches next Saturday. Irrespective of bonus points, if Ulster draw their match they go through. A Benneton vs Edinburgh draw is included in the permutations below, as this result is definitely possible. These two teams face each other next Saturday and both have everything to play for.
Subject to the constraints mentioned, here are all the permutations:
There is one big caveat to the outcomes above. In every scenario the 8th qualifier team in these tables is actually not safe yet. Only the 7th qualifier team in the scenarios above is guaranteed a Champions Cup spot after the regular season ends. The 8th qualifier from above still has to wait to see what happens in the playoff rounds before they are confirmed of their qualification. Because they can still get kicked out if the team that finishes 9th in the scenarios above goes on to win 3 playoff matches in a row and becomes the 2023-24 URC champions on June 22nd. That team then earns the right to play in the Champions Cup at the expense of the 8th qualifier.
Should make for some entertaining rugby anyway.
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Author's note: The final round of matches was played and the 30+ scenarios above were not enough to cover what actually happened, if you can believe it. A version of Scenario 1 happened (call it 1b) which can be summarized as 1) the Lions lost with one bonus point, 2) Benetton won with one bonus point, and 3) Ulster lost with a bonus point. Benetton and Ulster can rejoice in making it through to the URC playoffs. And Ulster are guaranteed a Champions Cup spot too. Interestingly, Benetton's Champions Cup berth will only be confirmed if and when the Ospreys fail to win the URC finals, else the Ospreys take the final spot in the Champions Cup next season at Benetton's expense. The Ospreys, against all the odds, got into the playoffs by winning their last regular season game and getting a bonus point for four tries. The Lions thought that playoff spot was safely theirs after their last match, but it was snatched away unexpectedly.
Lesson learned: The bonus points really matter during the URC season.
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