The 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is coming to a climax. There are four home and away semi-final matches over the next two weeks and one final on May 30th. The four remaining teams heading into the semifinals are Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), Bayern Munich, Arsenal, and Atlético Madrid.
Defending champions PSG look formidable after dismantling Liverpool in the quarterfinals, but they face a legendary Bayern Munich squad that just knocked out Real Madrid in a high-scoring thriller. On the other side of the bracket, Arsenal’s disciplined tactical approach makes them a serious threat, but they have failed so many times to secure the title that it seems almost impossible to imagine them finally getting over the finish line. An interesting story line, over and above the club result, is the fact that many of these players will be in the World Cup Finals this summer. So this will be a very good glimpse into their current form prior to that tournament.
If PSG do win again, that bodes well for the French national team. But it may tell us even more about other teams too, like Brazil and Portugal. If Bayern do well, Germany will be in a confident position for the World Cup. But Bayern also has a few great players from England, France, and Portugal. Arsenal represent England’s hopes in the Champions League and they have players on the national team. Atletico carries the hopes of Spain, but also has many of the best Argentinian players. The biggest surprise this year is the fact that no Italian team made it to the semis. And the fact that Italy itself did not qualify for the World Cup. This is the third World Cup finals in a row they have missed, pretty shocking for a team that has previously won the world title the second most times in history (they have won 4 times in 18 appearances). Their lack of form in recent years is something nobody could have expected. Given the depth of the sport in Italy we can safely assume they’ll be back with a vengeance at some point.
Looking at the favorites to win the World Cup, we have to start with the current title holders, Argentina. Their squad depth is bolstered by a strong contingent of players from Atlético Madrid. Julián Álvarez: Now a more versatile "Swiss Army Knife" for coach Lionel Scaloni, Álvarez has evolved beyond a pure finisher at Atlético. His high-pressing intensity and newfound ability to drop deeper and link play make him the perfect partner for Lionel Messi. He remains a lock for the starting XI, capable of leading the line or playing out wide. Nahuel Molina: He remains the primary option at right-back. His experience in Diego Simeone’s defensive system provides Argentina with a reliable, tireless runner who can transition quickly from a flat back four to an attacking wing-back role, ensuring defensive stability while supporting the attack. Thiago Almada: Having transitioned into the European game with Atlético, Almada has solidified his spot in the national squad. He is viewed as a high-impact creative spark off the bench, capable of unlocking tired defenses in the final 20 minutes of a knockout match. Juan Musso: While Emiliano Martínez remains the undisputed number one, Musso’s consistent performances in high-stakes matches for Atlético (including recent Champions League appearances) position him as a high-quality deputy. His form ensures that Argentina has a reliable veteran presence should "Dibu" be unavailable. Goal keepers can make all the difference when matches come down to penalty shootouts.
Remember this penalty shootout that decided the last World Cup winners?
Of course, we cannot mention Atletico without reference to their players from Spain itself. Ahead of the World Cup, Madrid’s resilience is anchored by Robin Le Normand, whose defensive consistency throughout the knockouts has been vital, while teammate Álex Baena provides the creative spark in the midfield. Beyond Madrid, the national side looks exceptionally sharp with David Raya entering in peak form after keeping eight clean sheets for Arsenal, and Fabián Ruiz continuing to dictate play for PSG with his signature "old-school class." Supplemented by the generational talent of Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal, this group represents a balanced mix of tactical precision and elite shot-stopping that makes Spain a primary threat in the upcoming tournament.
Aside for, perhaps, Spain, France is widely considered the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup, boasting a roster so deep that coach Didier Deschamps has "dream" dilemmas in almost every position. The squad's chances are heavily bolstered by the elite form of some specific stars. William Saliba: Despite a recent ankle scare that sidelined him for the March friendlies, Saliba is expected to be the bedrock of the defense. His consistency for Arsenal—leading the Premier League in clean sheets—makes him a lock for a starting spot, provided he is fully fit by June. Dayot Upamecano: Having just signed a contract extension through 2030 at Bayern Munich, Upamecano has found a new level of consistency under Vincent Kompany. His physical dominance and improved decision-making make him the ideal partner for Saliba or Ibrahima Konate. Michael Olise: Potentially the "missing piece" for Les Bleus, Olise has been in Ballon d'Or-caliber form for Bayern Munich, leading Europe with 8 assists. He provides a tactical clarity that links the midfield to the attack, often serving as the primary set-piece taker. Warren Zaïre-Emery: The PSG sensation brings immense engine-room energy, famously covering over 87 miles (140km) in the Champions League this season. His ability to win the ball and immediately transition into attack gives France a stamina advantage in the grueling North American summer heat. Ousmane Dembélé: Coming off a treble-winning season with PSG, Dembélé is at the peak of his powers. His volume of chance creation is among the highest in the world, and his established chemistry with Kylian Mbappé on the opposite wing makes France nearly impossible to defend in wide areas. With Mbappé as the centerpiece and this supporting cast at their physical peaks, France is the team to beat in their group and the clear pick for a deep run to the final.
The dominance of Paris Saint-Germain this season provides a massive boost for Brazil’s defensive and tactical foundations. Marquinhos remains the indispensable anchor and captain for the PSG side, providing a level of reliability that has become a "key stat" in their European success, while young Lucas Beraldo has emerged as a composed force in high-stakes knockout moments. Further up the pitch, Gabriel Martinelli enters the conversation as a lethal threat following a prolific campaign with Arsenal. However, much of the focus remains on Brazil’s new number 10 and captain, Raphinha. Despite his reputation as one of the world’s most underrated stars, his leadership was vital to Barcelona’s 2025 treble. While currently sidelined, his primary objective is a return to full fitness for the high-stakes El Clásico on May 10, ensuring he is ready to lead the Seleção on the world stage.
Portugal also stands to benefit from a PSG contingent that has mastered the art of midfield control and transition. Vitinha has been metronomic, maintaining a 94% pass accuracy while contributing significant goals, supported by the relentless energy of João Neves and the explosive offensive transitions of Nuno Mendes. When paired with the physical presence and defensive stability of Bayern Munich’s João Palhinha, the Portuguese squad looks formidable in the center of the pitch. As the nation looks toward the World Cup, the pressure remains high; despite the legendary career of Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal is still chasing its first-ever trophy in the competition, and this current crop of in-form stars may represent their best opportunity yet.
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As Bayern Munich gears up for a high-stakes Champions League semifinal against Paris Saint-Germain, the form of their core German internationals signals a formidable threat ahead of the World Cup. Aleksandar Pavlović has emerged as a midfield revelation, currently ranking second in the competition with 981 accurate passes, while the veteran engine Joshua Kimmich continues to dominate play with 886 of his own. This technical precision is matched by an explosive attack led by Serge Gnabry, who is enjoying a "renaissance" season marked by record-breaking offensive output, and Jamal Musiala, the creative centerpiece tasked with dismantling elite defenses. Combined with the versatility of Arsenal’s Kai Havertz, whose link-up play remains vital to his club's European run, Germany’s key figures are hitting their peak at the perfect moment for both club and country.
England’s prospects for the upcoming World Cup look exceptionally bright, fueled by a group of key players currently dominating the Champions League knockout stages. Leading the charge is Harry Kane, who heads into the semifinals as the competition's most lethal finisher with an incredible 12 goals for Bayern Munich. This clinical edge is supported by the Arsenal duo of Declan Rice, whose ability to shield the backline and dictate play has made him one of Europe's highest-rated midfielders, and Bukayo Saka, a consistent dual-threat whose goals and assists have been a cornerstone of the Gunners' success. Additionally, the high-energy presence of Conor Gallagher in Atlético Madrid’s midfield provides a tireless work rate and tactical grit, ensuring that the Three Lions' core is battle-hardened and in peak form for the challenges ahead.
Beyond each team’s success, the play-making ability of these top professionals will be on full display during these final 5 UEFA matches for the season. And it will be impossible to ignore their current form going into the World Cup. Perhaps when the UEFA trophy is lifted on May 30th there will be one clear favorite amongst Spain, France, Germany and England. Germany have previously appeared in 20 FIFA Word Cup finals (they’ve won 4), whilst Spain (1 win), France (2 wins) and England (1) have each played in 16. Any one of these national teams could secure the win 2026 and nobody would be surprised. But, to do so, they still need to defeat the likes of Argentina (3/18) and Brazil (5/22), as well as a few dark horses, like Morocco (0/6). That may prove difficult for the European teams for one simple reason - the anticipated conditions.
For example, the Mexico City stadium, Estadio Ciudad de México, normally has June-July temperatures just under 80 degrees and over 90% humidity; and that is on a good day. And with nearly 90,000 people packed into the “sunken bowl" concrete stadium design, the air in there will be “thick”. The influence of the geography and climate on the players should not be underestimated.
Think about this in historical context. European nations have hosted the FIFA finals tournament a total of 11 times, with 10 of those World Cups won by European teams. Whereas North and South America combined have hosted 9 tournaments. Teams from the Americas won 8 out of those 9 times.
Winning the UEFA Champions League is a massive career-defining achievement, but, if any of the European players mentioned above want to lift the FIFA World Cup Trophy this year too, they are going to have some work cut out.
